Serbia: NBS stands pat in December
Central Bank leaves rates unchanged: At its final meeting of the year on 11 December, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.75% for the 15th straight month, in line with market expectations.
Risks finely balanced: The NBS refrained from tightening as it expects inflation to remain within its 1.5–4.5% tolerance band, even after retail and wholesale trade margin caps expire in March 2026. However, the Central Bank also ruled out a cut likely amid uncertainty linked to U.S. sanctions on oil company NIS and heightened international trade and geopolitical uncertainty.
Bank to begin easing cycle in 2026: The vast majority of our panelists expect monetary easing of 50–100 basis points by the end of 2026. An extended shutdown of Serbia’s only refinery—and the risk of fuel depletion stoking prices—is an upside risk to rates, while changes to the margin-cap regime are key to monitor.