South Africa: Inflation slows in November
Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 3.5% in annual terms in November, following a 3.6% increase in the prior month. The reading slightly undershot market expectations and moved closer to the midpoint of the Central Bank’s new 2.0–4.0% target band.
Relative to the previous month’s data, price pressures reduced for transportation (+0.7% in annual terms vs +1.5% in October). In contrast, price pressures were higher for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+4.4% vs +3.9% in October). Finally, the variation in housing and utilities prices was the same as in the prior month (+4.5% in November and October).
Meanwhile, core consumer prices rose 3.2% in annual terms in November, following a 3.1% rise in the previous month.
Finally, consumer prices were down 0.10% in November in month-on-month terms, following a 0.10% rise in the previous month.
Outlook: Overall in 2026, inflation is seen by our panel averaging higher than in 2025; stronger wage growth and lower interest rates will push price pressures. Upside risks stem from extreme weather, power cuts and commodity price spikes.
Looking further ahead, inflation will ebb in 2027–2030, gradually moving closer to, but still topping, the SARB’s 3.0% target.