Taiwan: Exports continue to soar in January
Latest reading: In January, the trade balance was USD +18.9 billion, following a USD +19.4 billion reading in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +166.0 billion.
Merchandise exports increased 69.9% in year-on-year terms in January, following a 43.4% rise in the prior month and above market expectations. January’s reading was the strongest since January 2010. Exports rose by double digits to all key trading partners, with sales to the U.S. increasing the most. As in past months, higher sales of IT products—linked to the boom in global AI demand—drove the headline reading. Merchandise imports increased 63.6% in annual terms in January, coming on the back of 14.9% growth in the previous month and linked in part to surging imports of industrial raw materials. January’s reading was the strongest since May 2010.
Panelist insight: On the data and outlook, Nomura analysts said:
“January-February trade data tend to be more volatile, due to moving calendar effects from the Lunar New Year holiday. While this distorted export growth higher in January, we expect to see payback in February, with export growth likely to be distorted lower. Nonetheless, […] trade data have exceeded expectations and corroborate our upbeat view on the AI theme. Furthermore, despite likely data distortions, we believe a sharp increase in capital and consumer goods imports indicate domestic demand is on track for a recovery. This reinforces our view that the domestic economy will regain momentum in coming months.”