Thailand: Merchandise trade returns to a surplus in December
Latest reading: In December, the trade balance was USD +2.7 billion, following a USD -0.2 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +23.3 billion.
Merchandise exports were up 17.9% in year-on-year terms in December, following 5.5% growth in the prior month. The reading beat market expectations and was supported by stronger growth in shipments of electronics and electrical appliances. Meanwhile, merchandise imports were up 17.9% in annual terms in December, following a 17.3% increase in the previous month.
In 2025 as a whole, merchandise exports were up 12.7% from the year before (2024: +5.7% yoy), marking a four-year high and aided by shipment frontloading ahead of U.S. tariff hikes. Similarly, goods imports accelerated last year, rising 12.9% from 2024’s 5.5% growth.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts said:
“We forecast that Thailand’s real exports of goods and services will expand at a much slower rate [in 2026 from 2025], which had benefited from front-loading activity. Higher US reciprocal tariffs that took effect in August will significantly dampen export growth to that market, with the impact more visible in 2026. Thailand’s manufactured exports (such as electronics, machinery, car parts—such as tyres—and rubber products), which are more exposed to the US market, will probably achieve slower growth. More positively, Thailand’s agricultural and agro-industrial exports will benefit from higher demand from China as that country diverts its imports away from the US.”