UAE: UAE oil output increases in January
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 64.59 per barrel in January, up 4.6% from December. On 30 January, the commodity traded at USD 70.73 per barrel, up 16.2% from 31 December.
Turning to production, the UAE’s oil output rose to 3.39 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January, up 15.7% year on year (December: 3.38 mbpd, up 16.4% yoy), one of the sharpest increases in recent history. Output has been bolstered by higher OPEC+ quotas; in mid-2024, OPEC+ agreed to raise the UAE’s quota by 0.3 mbpd between April and September of last year.
Outlook: The 0.3 mbpd boost to the UAE’s quota is now fully phased in, but the country’s output should continue to rise as OPEC+ continues to loosen production restrictions for the cartel. OPEC+ may boost the UAE’s quota ahead, as the country’s recent expansion in production capabilities has chafed against the cartel’s output restrictions. In July 2025, the government said it was targeting output of 5 mbpd by 2027, and stated that it could raise production to 6 mbpd if market demand was sufficient, which would make the UAE the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, only after the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia.