UAE: UAE oil output surges further in October
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 63.98 per barrel in October, down 5.4% from September. On 31 October, the commodity traded at USD 65.10 per barrel, down 3.0% from 30 September.
Turning to production, the UAE’s oil output rose to 3.36 million barrels per day (mbpd) in October—up 13.8% year on year—from 3.35 mbpd in September (up 13.2% yoy). October’s growth rate was the highest in just over three years, in part due to OPEC+ easing its output caps, but also due to the cartel raising the UAE’s quota; in mid-2024, OPEC+ agreed to raise the UAE’s quota by 0.3 mbpd between April and September of this year.
Outlook: The 0.3 mbpd boost to the UAE’s quota is now fully phased in, but the country’s output should continue to rise as OPEC+ continues to loosen production restrictions for the cartel. OPEC+ may boost the UAE’s quota ahead, as the country’s recent expansion in production capabilities has chafed against the cartel’s output restrictions. In July, the government said it was targeting output of 5 mbpd by 2027, and stated that it could raise production to 6 mbpd if market demand was sufficient, which would make the UAE the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, only after the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia.