UAE: UAE oil output soars year on year in December
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 61.77 per barrel in December, down 3.0% from November. On 31 December, the commodity traded at USD 60.85 per barrel, down 3.8% from 28 November.
Turning to production, the UAE’s oil output was stable at November’s 3.38 million barrels per day (mbpd) in December—up 16.6% year on year (November: +12.5% yoy), the sharpest increase in recent history. Output has been bolstered by higher OPEC+ quotas; in mid-2024, OPEC+ agreed to raise the UAE’s quota by 0.3 mbpd between April and September of this year.
Outlook: The 0.3 mbpd boost to the UAE’s quota is now fully phased in, but the country’s output should continue to rise as OPEC+ continues to loosen production restrictions for the cartel. OPEC+ may boost the UAE’s quota ahead, as the country’s recent expansion in production capabilities has chafed against the cartel’s output restrictions. In July 2025, the government said it was targeting output of 5 mbpd by 2027, and stated that it could raise production to 6 mbpd if market demand was sufficient, which would make the UAE the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, only after the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia.