UAE: UAE oil output rises in April as OPEC+ accelerates hikes
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 66.93 per barrel in April, down 6.7% from March. On 30 April, the commodity traded at USD 64.33 per barrel, falling 14.0% from 31 March.
Turning to production, the UAE’s oil production rose to 2.94 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April from 2.93 mbpd in March, broadly in line with the increased OPEC+ quota agreed in the prior month. However, UAE oil output remained at one of the lowest levels since late 2021.
Outlook: The UAE’s quota in May is set at 3.02 mbpd and is then set to rise another 2.3% in June to 3.09 mbpd, after OPEC+ recently agreed to triple production hikes in both months. The country’s quota will then increase gradually through September 2026, reaching 3.38 mbpd. This increase exceeds that anticipated by neighbor and economic rival Saudi Arabia, reflecting an agreement reached last year to raise the UAE’s allowed production.
Looking further ahead, output is poised to grow even more, with the national oil company aiming to reach 5.00 mbpd capacity by 2027—up from its current maximum of 4.85 mbpd.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts are upbeat on the UAE’s economic prospects:
“Weaker international oil prices and subdued global oil demand will constrain the recovery in oil production in the UAE and regionally. [However,] the sector now accounts for less than 30% of GDP (aside from in Abu Dhabi, where it is about 50%), with non-oil GDP contributing an increasing share of overall economic activity. Capacity increases and the rise in the UAE’s OPEC+ baseline output level in 2025 will support an increase in production.”