United States: Inflation stabilizes in February
Latest reading: Consumer prices were up 2.4% on a year-on-year basis in February, unchanged from the prior month’s reading. February’s figure was in line with expectations and the joint-lowest level since May 2025.
Relative to the previous month’s data, there were higher price pressures for transportation (-0.5% in annual terms vs -1.0% in January), food (+3.1% vs +2.9% in January) and energy (+0.4% vs -0.3% in January). Finally, the variation in housing prices was the same as in the prior month (+3.0% in February and January).
Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 2.5% in annual terms in February, stable from the previous month’s reading.
Lastly, consumer prices increased 0.27% in February in month-on-month terms, following a 0.17% increase in the prior month.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Nomura analysts said:
“Beyond February, we think that core goods inflation will remain sticky, even as the tariff impact wanes. We expect used vehicle prices to rebound in coming months as wholesale prices firmed in recent months in anticipation of a strong tax refund season. Moreover, new sources of price pressures are emerging. Supply shortages and robust AI demand are pushing up memory chip prices, and metal prices have trended higher. In addition, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses upside risk.”