Vietnam: Merchandise trade deficit shrinks in February
Latest reading: In February, the trade balance was USD -1.0 billion, following a USD -1.8 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +15.3 billion.
Merchandise exports were up 5.8% in annual terms in February, following 29.7% growth in the previous month. February’s reading was the weakest since January 2025. Merchandise imports were up 4.4% in year-on-year terms in February, on the back of a 49.2% increase in the prior month. February’s reading was the weakest since January 2025. That said, January and February readings were distorted by a calendar effect: The Lunar New Year holidays fell in February this year and in January last year.
Outlook: Our panelists have raised their 2026 forecasts for merchandise exports, after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the import tariffs previously imposed by President Trump in mid-February. The levies were replaced by a new global tariff of 15%, which erases much of the competitive disadvantage Vietnam faced from rival exporters. Vietnam stands out as one of the main regional winners: Its tariff rate dropped to 10% from 20%, the largest fall in ASEAN. This shift gives Vietnam’s external sector a tailwind.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, EIU analysts stated:
“The main risk emanates from a US policy pivot to sectoral tariffs. However, the new flat 10% tariff rate has largely erased most of the tariff differentials under the previous International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) regime […]. Some competitive disadvantages will persist under the targeted tariff rates via Sections 232 and 301. However, factors such as currency movements, domestic producer and export price deflation, supply-chain shifts and trade rerouting (via transshipment) will mitigate many of these effects.”