Inflation eases but remains elevated by regional standards in April

Latest reading: Inflation fell to 22.3% in April from March’s 23.9%, marking an over one-year low. Resumed Central Bank intervention in FX markets has supported the kwanza, tempering imported inflation. Domestically, elevated interest rates and improved consumer goods supply have contributed to a continued decline in inflation. That said, the paring back of fuel subsidies likely stemmed the overall decline in inflation and will likely keep it elevated ahead. Meanwhile, the trend was eased, with annual average inflation edging down to 27.8% in April from March’s 28.3%. Lastly, consumer prices rose 1.34% over the previous month in April, which was below the 1.38% increase logged in March and marked the lowest result since May 2023.

Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented: “We expect an increase in diesel prices of 50% in late March to create significant cost-push pressures that will reverse the inflation slowdown. The rise in diesel prices is part of broader fuel subsidy reform that the authorities have been implementing since June 2023 in order to increase fiscal sustainability. Despite fuel and other utilities constituting an estimated 5% of Angola’s consumer price index basket, the secondary effects of fuel price rises on inflation are sweeping. Diesel is a critical fuel for transportation and power generation and is used widely in back-up generators.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Angolan inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Angolan inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Angolan inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.