Economy loses momentum in Q2

GDP growth decelerates quarter on quarter: A second release confirmed that GDP growth ebbed to 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the second quarter, down from 0.4% in the first quarter. On an annual basis, economic growth moderated to 1.0% in Q2 from the previous period's 1.1% expansion, marking the slowest growth since Q2 2024.

Economy faces headwinds on multiple fronts: The moderation in sequential growth was driven by weaker private consumption, fixed investment and exports. Domestically, household spending growth fell to 0.4% in Q2, marking the weakest expansion since Q2 2024 (Q1: +0.5% s.a. qoq). Moreover, fixed investment swung into contraction, falling 0.5% in Q2 and contrasting the 0.4% increase logged in the prior quarter. More positively, government spending bounced back, growing 0.6% in Q2 (Q1: -0.4% s.a. qoq). On the external front, exports of goods and services fell 1.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis in the second quarter, which was deeper than Q1's 0.2% contraction. In addition, imports of goods and services slid at a steeper rate of 1.0% in Q2 (Q1: -0.4% s.a. qoq). As a result, the external balance detracted from overall GDP growth.

2024’s momentum to carry over into 2025: GDP growth should hover near 2024’s level in 2025. Private consumption should rise more than last year due to robust wage growth, lower interest rates and easing inflation. In contrast, fixed investment and exports will likely take a hit from a 15% U.S. tariff on EU pharmaceuticals—Belgium’s top export. Political instability and weaker-than-expected EU demand pose downside risks.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Belgian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 19 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Belgian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Belgian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Belgian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.