Economic growth eases in the fourth quarter of 2025

GDP reading: According to a flash estimate, Belgium's GDP grew 0.2% in seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q4, following 0.3% growth in the prior quarter. Q4's reading was the weakest in a year. In annual terms, the economy grew a seasonally and calendar-adjusted 1.1% in Q4, following a 1.0% expansion in the prior quarter. Looking at the full year, Belgium’s economy expanded a seasonally and calendar-adjusted 1.0% in 2025 (2024: +1.1%), the weakest pace since 2020, when GDP contracted by nearly 5%.

Drivers: Relative to the previous period's data, readings in Q4 softened for the industrial sector (-0.6% in working-day and seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs +0.3% in Q3) and the construction sector (+0.4% vs +0.9% in Q3). Finally, the variation in the services sector was the same as in the prior quarter (+0.3% in both Q4 and Q3).

Panelist insight: Maddalena Martini, senior economist at Allianz, commented on the GDP growth outlook: “Automatic wage indexation and lower inflation will support private spending. Looser financial conditions compared with 2023-24, NGEU resources (Belgium’s is nearly EUR 6 billion) and reduced trade uncertainty will support investment growth. Against this backdrop, we expect economic growth to accelerate to +1.3% in 2026 and +1.4% in 2027.” ING senior economist Philippe Ledent commented on their less positive outlook: “The savings rate has little room to fall further, and new government reforms, prompted by deteriorating public finances and the need for labour market reforms, will affect household incomes, reducing their purchasing power. […] These changes are expected to slow household consumption, probably keeping Belgian economic growth below the eurozone average.”

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