GDP reading: GDP declined 3.5% in seasonally adjusted annualized rate terms (SAAR) in the second quarter, contrasting the 3.1% expansion...
Economic Growth in Bulgaria
Bulgaria's economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.7% in the decade to 2024, compared to the 2.8% average for South-Eastern Europe. In 2024, real GDP growth was 2.8%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Bulgaria GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Bulgaria from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Bulgaria GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 70.6 | 84.4 | 90.5 | 102.4 | 112.2 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 61.9 | 71.4 | 86.1 | 94.7 | 103.7 |
| GDP (BGN bn) | 121 | 140 | 168 | 185 | 203 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.0 | 15.3 | 20.6 | 10.0 | 9.5 |
Economy grows at a steady pace in Q2
GDP growth at par with Q1’s pace: Preliminary data revealed that seasonally adjusted year-on-year GDP growth remained at Q1’s 3.1% in Q2. Still, growth remained robust, coming in above the post-pandemic average. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth inched up to 0.7% in Q2 from Q1’s 0.6%.
Steady growth despite export decline: Preliminary data showed that on a seasonally adjusted year-on-year basis, final consumption grew 6.5% in Q2 (Q1: +7.1% yoy), while fixed investment rose 6.7% (Q1: +7.4% yoy). Meanwhile, exports of goods and services fell 4.9% in Q2 (Q1: -3.3% yoy), while imports of goods and services swung into a 0.6% decline (Q1: +4.6% yoy).
Panelist insight: EIU analysts said: “Bulgarian economic growth is projected to remain among the strongest in the EU in 2025-29, underpinned by robust real wage gains and rising investment. […] The formation of a new government in January, following a prolonged period of political uncertainty, is likely to accelerate the absorption of EU funds and boost public spending. […] We are in the process of revising up our forecast for real GDP growth [in 2025], supported by strong private consumption and a rebound in investment.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 22 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Bulgarian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Bulgarian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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