GDP reading: GDP growth ticked up to 3.1% year on year in the second quarter from 3.0% in the first...
Economic Growth in Canada
Over the last decade, Canada's economy benefited from brisk population growth, close ties to a robust U.S. economy, strong natural resource sectors and improved trade ties with Asian and European economies thanks to participation in new free trade deals. GDP growth frequently clocked over 2% per year, above the G7 average. Following a contraction in 2020, the post-pandemic recovery was supported by fiscal stimulus, rapid population growth and rebounding global demand. However, GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 was below trend, weighed on by a lack of productivity growth and despite the large increase in the size of the labor force.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Canada was 1.53%, compared to 2.87% in 2014 and 1.53% in 2023. It averaged 1.86% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Canada GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Canada from 2024 to 2020.
Source: Macrobond.
Canada GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -5.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,656 | 2,022 | 2,190 | 2,174 | 2,243 |
| GDP (CAD bn) | 2,221 | 2,536 | 2,851 | 2,934 | 3,072 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.0 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 2.9 | 4.7 |
Economy flatlines in May
GDP reading: GDP was flat in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in May, following April's 0.1% decrease. On an annual basis, monthly GDP rose at a more moderate pace of 1.2% in May (April: +1.4% yoy), the worst result since March 2024.
Drivers: Goods-producing industries contracted in May, mainly due to a decline in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas, though manufacturing grew. Service industries were broadly flat, with gains in real estate and transportation offset by drops in retail and public administration.
GDP outlook: Preliminary data suggests real GDP rose 0.1% in June, with gains in retail and wholesale trade partly offset by a drop in manufacturing. Based on this estimate, the economy showed little overall change in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025—a resilient performance given the imposition of U.S. tariffs on some Canadian imports from March.
Panelist insight: TD Economics’ Marc Ercolao said: “May's weak GDP reading came as no surprise as tariff-related headwinds continue to blow. For the time being, industry data suggest Q2 GDP effectively flat. While this would represent a sharp pullback from Q1 growth, it would be a better outcome than the BoC's most recent guidance for second quarter growth. Past this, the outlook continues to face considerable uncertainty.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Canadian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 42 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Canadian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Canadian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Canadian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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