Central Bank holds fire in June

Bank stands pat: At its meeting on 25 June, the Czech National Bank (CNB) decided to keep the two-week repo rate unchanged at 3.50%—the lowest level since 2021—in line with market expectations. All seven board members voted in favor of the hold.

Rate cut off the table as CNB faces sticky, above-target inflation: The CNB’s decision was motivated by persistent inflationary pressures—particularly from services—and its projection that consumer price growth will remain above the 2.0% target through year-end. Moreover, the Bank noted upside inflation risks stemming from continued rapid wage growth, additional public sector spending and stronger acceleration in money supply growth due to a faster pick-up in credit activity, especially in the property sector. On the external front, the impact of mounting trade frictions is still unclear, while geopolitical risks—notably the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East—continue to cloud the outlook.

Bank to cut again, but risks loom: The communiqué offered no explicit forward guidance. The majority of our panelists expect the Central Bank to opt for a 25 basis point cut by the end of 2025. However, the Central Bank stressed that future decisions will be data-driven and contingent on evolving macroeconomic conditions. Escalating Middle East tensions causing a spike in energy prices could force the CNB to turn more hawkish. The Bank will reconvene on 7 August.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Jiri Polansky, analyst at Erste Bank, stated: “Overall, today's press conference does not change […] that current macro data are trending more inflationary than initially expected, increasing the likelihood of a slightly longer period of stable rates. However, clarity on this matter will emerge in a few months.”

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