NBK surprises markets with another cut: At its meeting on 27 July, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) continued its...
Banxico Target Rate in Mexico
Mexico's central bank policy rates over the last decade varied in response to economic conditions. Initially, rates were increased to control inflation, but were cut to stimulate growth during economic slowdowns, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Post-pandemic, the focus shifted to controlling rising inflation, leading to increased rates before another easing cycle began in 2024 as inflation pulled back. However, interest rates remain above pre-pandemic levels.
The banxico target rate ended 2024 at 10.00%, compared to the end-2023 value of 11.25% and the figure a decade earlier of 3.00%. It averaged 6.93% over the last decade. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Mexico Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Mexico from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Mexico Interest Rate Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) | 5.50 | 10.50 | 11.25 | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) | 5.72 | 10.76 | 11.50 | 10.24 | 7.20 |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 7.57 | 8.94 | 9.39 | 10.43 | 9.20 |
Central Bank holds rates in June
Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 25 June, the Central Bank decided to hold the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at 6.50%, after total cuts of 475 basis points since early 2024.
Bank in wait-and-see mode: The decision to hold was driven by a desire to assess the impact of past rate cuts, against a backdrop of soft economic activity and headline and core inflation which are currently close to the top of the 2.0–4.0% target range.
Rates to stay on hold: After substantial monetary easing over the last couple of years, our Consensus is for the Central Bank to not make any further interest rate cuts. This aligns with the Bank’s own forward guidance.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Goldman Sachs’ Alberto Ramos said: “Given the central bank’s sharp focus on growth rather than inflation, we are of the view that despite the on-hold guidance the MPC could entertain additional rate cuts after the Summer if growth remains weak, the MXN well-anchored, and the FOMC remains on hold. Conversely, were the FOMC to hike, the MPC would likely face unfavorable policy trade-offs given the very tight Mexico-US interest rate differential. At this juncture we expect the MPC to keep the policy rate unchanged throughout the remainder of 2026.” Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “The statement reflects a neutral stance with limited conviction for further near-term adjustments and a “higher-for-longer” bias unless inflation surprises materially. We continue to see the policy rate at 6.50% through 2027, consistent with Banxico’s cautious reaction function. Despite the market pricing in two Fed hikes this year, we see a potential sharp depreciation of the peso as the main trigger for renewed tightening by Banxico.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 41 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Mexican interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Mexican interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Mexican interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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