SARB holds fire in March

SARB pauses loosening cycle, as expected: At its meeting on 20 March, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held fire and kept its policy rate at 7.50%. The hold followed three consecutive quarter-point reductions and had been largely priced in by markets. The decision was once again not unanimous: Two of the MPC’s six members preferred another 25 basis point cut.

Rising economic uncertainty and price pressures prompt pause: The SARB’s hold was partly driven by its assessment that risks to the inflationary outlook in the medium term are skewed to the upside. Furthermore, the SARB hiked its core inflation projections for 2026 and 2027 by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5% and 4.6%, respectively. Moreover, the Bank described current global economic uncertainty as “extreme”, citing trade tensions and shifting geopolitical alliances, calling for caution regarding monetary policy decisions.

Fewer cuts now forecast ahead: The SARB forecasts its policy rate to end the year at 7.25%, a level the Bank considers neutral—that which matches aggregate demand and supply. That said, the Bank’s governor noted that this is only “broad” guidance. The SARB will reconvene on 29 May. A slight majority of our panelists see the Bank staying put in Q2 and resuming the easing cycle in Q3; the rest see cuts in Q2. Overall in 2025, our panelists have turned more hawkish and our Consensus is now for a little over 25 basis points of additional cuts by end-2025, matching the SARB’s forecast, instead of 75 basis points after the SARB’s January meeting.

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