Economic growth picks up in the third quarter of 2025

GDP growth rises but remains subdued: Angola's GDP increased 1.8% in annual terms in Q3, following a 1.1% expansion in the prior quarter. However, the reading came in below the 3.0% post-pandemic average for the second consecutive quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth flatlined in Q3, following a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter.

Non-oil sector accelerates and oil sector posts a milder contraction: The non-oil sector GDP increased 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in Q3, following a 3.5% expansion in the previous quarter. Conversely, the oil sector GDP shrank 7.8% in Q3, following an 8.7% contraction in the previous quarter. Relative to the prior period's data, the reading for the services sector improved in Q3 (+6.9% in annual terms vs +5.0% in Q2). In contrast, readings worsened for the agricultural sector (+2.0% vs +2.3% in Q2) and the industrial sector (-2.0% vs -1.3% in Q2). A rebound in construction and a faster expansion in the services sector boosted growth in the non-oil economy. Meanwhile, new projects that came online in late July provided a lift to oil output in Q3, helping soften the decline caused by structural issues such as maturing oil fields and periodic production stoppages.

Economy to gain steam next year: Our Consensus is for the economy to grow at a speedier pace in 2026 than in 2025. A recovery in oil production is expected to boost exports, while looser monetary conditions will likely support domestic demand. Still, the channeling of a large share of the government’s fiscal stimulus toward debt repayments will weigh on economic growth. Delays in structural reforms pose a downside risk, while oil prices remain key to monitor.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, EIU analysts noted: “We also remain confident that economic growth will accelerate mildly in 2026, to 2.6%. This is contingent on oil production rising to around 1.25m b/d, which we believe will be achievable through new sources of output coming on stream. The biggest source of downside risk to our growth projection is the outlook for oil prices.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 16 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Angolan GDP.

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