Economic growth rises in Q4 2025

Q4 GDP growth hits over two-year high: Angola's GDP grew 5.7% in annual terms in Q4, following a 2.5% expansion in the previous quarter. Q4's reading was the strongest since Q2 2023. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, economic output grew 1.9% in Q4, following a 0.9% expansion in the previous quarter. In 2025 as a whole, the economy expanded 3.1% (2024: +5.0%). While 2025’s reading marked a deceleration from the prior year, it remained among the strongest in the past decade.

Broad-based improvement in Q4: Non-oil sector GDP grew 7.5% on a year-on-year basis in Q4, following a 5.3% expansion in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, oil sector GDP shrank 1.2% in annual terms in Q4, following a 6.9% contraction in the previous quarter. Compared to the prior quarter's data, figures in Q4 improved for the agricultural sector (+4.3% in annual terms vs +2.8% in Q3), the industrial sector (+1.8% vs -2.2% in Q3) and the services sector (+10.1% vs +8.3% in Q3). Non-oil GDP growth accelerated on stronger manufacturing activity and an expanding services sector, while the oil sector clocked a softer contraction, as oil output stabilized and gas production rose.

GDP growth to decelerate ahead: Our Consensus is for GDP growth to decelerate from its Q4 level in H1 2026 before picking up again in the second half of the year as recent monetary policy easing buoys domestic demand. Looking at 2026 as a whole, economic growth is set to slow to a three-year low. A strong dependence on hydrocarbon and diamond exports will constrain GDP growth due to the volatility of the former and the declining demand for the latter. While economic growth will be supported by continued diversification away from oil, crude prices remain key to track, considering the nation’s heavy reliance on exports of petroleum—accounting for roughly 95% of total goods exports and 50% of government revenue in 2024. Still, the positive impact of higher crude prices will be capped by Angola’s limited domestic refining capacity, keeping it reliant on costly imports of refined fuel.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, analysts at Emerging Market Watch commented: “For Angola, higher oil prices provide near-term fiscal relief, supporting export revenues and external balances. Over a longer horizon, however, sustained oil price increases could also reignite inflation pressures, particularly through higher imported fuel and food costs.”

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