Central Bank delivers largest rate cut in almost three years

January meeting sees third straight cut: At its first meeting of 2026 on 13–14 January, the National Bank of Angola (BNA) reduced its BNA basic reference rate by 100 basis points from 18.50% to 17.50%. The cut was the largest in almost three years, brought rates down to their lowest level since November 2023, and marked the third consecutive reduction.

Expectations of continued disinflation fuel cut: The BNA justified its decision by pointing to the fact that inflation continued to fall through December, reaching an over two-year low of 15.7% due to a stabilization in the kwanza’s exchange rate, which affects the cost of imports. Moreover, the BNA expects inflation to decline further in the coming months, reinforcing its decision to cut rates and prioritize stimulating the domestic economy.

BNA to continue easing cycle in 2026: As inflation eases further, the BNA should get more room to keep reducing rates this year to stimulate economic growth. The vast majority of our panelists have penciled in further cuts this year, with the average forecast for 175 basis points of additional reductions. Crude prices remain key to monitor, given their impact on the kwanza’s exchange rate. The Central Bank will reconvene on 11–12 March.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, analysts at EIU commented: “We assume that the BNA will cut a further 150 basis points from its policy rate in 2026, but the pace will slow in 2027 as higher pre-election public spending stokes inflation. Thereafter, the central bank is likely to resume monetary-policy loosening, at an approximate pace of 100 basis points a year. This would result in a policy rate of 13.5% by the end of our forecast period in 2030.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 7 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Angolan interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Angolan interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Angolan interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.