Economy rebounds in Q3 2025

GDP reading: Argentina's GDP expanded 0.3% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q3, following a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. The improvement came despite a surge in interbank interest rates and a depreciating peso linked to investor uncertainty over the October midterm elections.

Surging exports contrast weak domestic demand: Compared to the prior period's data, readings in Q3 improved for private consumption (+0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis vs -0.7% in Q2), exports of goods and services (+6.4% vs -0.6% in Q2) and imports of goods and services (-2.7% vs -3.5% in Q2). In contrast, readings worsened for government consumption (+0.5% vs +1.4% in Q2) and fixed investment (-6.0% vs -1.6% in Q2). In annual terms, GDP increased 3.3% in Q3, following 6.4% growth in the prior quarter.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, EIU analysts said: “Argentina's economy will expand firmly in 2026. The government's stronger-than-expected performance in the October mid-term election has increased business and consumer confidence, which we expect will encourage large investments and significant purchases, especially for durable goods. Improving credit conditions with lower lending interest rates will encourage investment and private consumption. Greater access to global capital markets for large firms will also expand investment opportunities. However, we expect that labour market conditions will improve only gradually, precluding higher growth. Government consumption will grow, but it will be muted because of the government's commitment to fiscal austerity. Net exports will significantly contribute to growth as Argentina is expected to have a bumper harvest with record wheat and corn production. The continued expansion of oil and gas production in Vaca Muerta will also support export growth.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Argentine private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 34 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Argentine private consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Argentine private consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Argentine private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.