Economy rebounds in Q3 2025

GDP reading: Argentina's GDP expanded 0.3% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q3, following a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. The improvement came despite a surge in interbank interest rates and a depreciating peso linked to investor uncertainty over the October midterm elections.

Surging exports contrast weak domestic demand: Compared to the prior period's data, readings in Q3 improved for private consumption (+0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis vs -0.7% in Q2), exports of goods and services (+6.4% vs -0.6% in Q2) and imports of goods and services (-2.7% vs -3.5% in Q2). In contrast, readings worsened for government consumption (+0.5% vs +1.4% in Q2) and fixed investment (-6.0% vs -1.6% in Q2). In annual terms, GDP increased 3.3% in Q3, following 6.4% growth in the prior quarter.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, EIU analysts said: “Argentina's economy will expand firmly in 2026. The government's stronger-than-expected performance in the October mid-term election has increased business and consumer confidence, which we expect will encourage large investments and significant purchases, especially for durable goods. Improving credit conditions with lower lending interest rates will encourage investment and private consumption. Greater access to global capital markets for large firms will also expand investment opportunities. However, we expect that labour market conditions will improve only gradually, precluding higher growth. Government consumption will grow, but it will be muted because of the government's commitment to fiscal austerity. Net exports will significantly contribute to growth as Argentina is expected to have a bumper harvest with record wheat and corn production. The continued expansion of oil and gas production in Vaca Muerta will also support export growth.”

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