BOJ stands pat again: On 19 March, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) again decided by an eight-to-one vote to keep...
RBA Cash Rate in Australia
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained relatively low policy rates for much of the last decade. Post-financial crisis, rates saw a cycle of lowering to support GDP growth, reaching historic lows during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, monetary policy was then tightened sharply, with the policy rate rising to over 4% through end-2024, as the RBA looked to ward off inflation. In 2025, the Bank has shifted towards normalizing policy amid easing price pressures.
The rba cash rate ended 2024 at 4.35%, compared to the end-2023 value of 4.35% and the figure a decade earlier of 2.50%. It averaged 1.98% over the last decade. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Australia Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Australia from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Australia Interest Rate Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Cash Rate (%, eop) | 0.10 | 3.10 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 3.58 |
| 90-Day Bank Bill (%, eop) | 0.06 | 3.17 | 4.35 | 4.44 | 3.65 |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 1.67 | 4.03 | 3.96 | 4.37 | 4.29 |
Central Bank hikes rates in March
Second straight hike: At its March meeting, the Central Bank decided to hike the cash rate from 3.85% to 4.10%, following a same-sized hike in February. This followed 75 basis points of cuts last year.
Inflation concerns motivate hike: The Bank decided to tighten its monetary stance due to elevated inflation in recent months, as well as the Bank’s belief that inflation could remain above the 2.0% to 3.0% target “for longer than previously anticipated.” The latter is linked to higher fuel prices due to the Iran war.
Further hikes are possible ahead: The Bank’s forward guidance was open-ended. Another rate hike is a distinct possibility in the near term as the Bank looks to quell inflation.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The risk of a third consecutive rate hike in May is material (GS: 30% subjective probability) but not our base case – partly because we view the pick-up in inflation over 2H2025 as mostly driven by ‘administered’ and sector-specific prices rather than ‘excess demand’ in the economy.” ANZ analysts said: “We expect an additional 25bp increase in May which would take the cash rate to 4.35%. That level of interest rates, combined with the negative impact on household finances and demand from the energy price shock, should mark the end of this tightening cycle.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Australian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 21 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Australian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Australian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Australian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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