Economic growth slows in the fourth quarter of 2025

Second release downwardly revises GDP growth: A second release revised Belgium's GDP growth in Q4 2025 down by 0.1 percentage points. The economy is now seen as having expanded 0.1% on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4, following a 0.3% expansion in the previous quarter. The revised Q4 reading is the weakest since Q4 2020. In annual terms, the economy grew 1.0% on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis in Q4, stable from the previous quarter's reading but also revised down from the 1.1% reported in the flash release. Full-year growth in 2025 stood at 1.0%—a slight deceleration from 2024’s 1.1% expansion and the weakest pace since 2020, when GDP contracted by nearly 5%.

Readings worsened across the board vs Q3: Compared to the prior period's data, figures in Q4 softened for private consumption (0.0% in seasonally and working-day adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs +0.1% in Q3), government consumption (+0.6% vs +0.8% in Q3), fixed investment (+1.3% vs +1.9% in Q3), exports of goods and services (-1.6% vs -0.5% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (-1.1% vs -0.5% in Q3). Meanwhile, the downward revision from the preliminary release stemmed from a contraction in the construction sector compared to an expansion in the flash release, as well as weaker growth in the services sector. In 2025 as a whole, weaker domestic demand—mainly due to a sharp drop in housing and public investment—more than offset an improvement in the external sector’s performance relative to the previous year, pushing growth below the 2024 rate.

GDP outlook: In Q1 2026, sequential GDP growth should recover from the prior quarter’s weak print. For the full year, our Consensus projects annual GDP growth to maintain 2025’s pace. Private and public spending should lose steam from last year—with the former dampened by weaker wage indexation, excise tax hikes and tighter unemployment and pension benefits—but fixed investment should rebound, while exports are also seen improving. As the country heavily relies on energy imports, which accounted for 88.9% of total energy supply in 2024, persistently higher energy prices due to a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict are a key downside risk.

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