Harmonized inflation increases in June

Latest reading: Harmonized inflation came in at 2.9% in June, ticking up from May’s 2.8% and moving further above the ECB’s 2.0% target. The uptick was due to rising price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages, hospitality, and recreation. In addition, prices for transportation fell at a less pronounced rate. The trend pointed down slightly, with annual average harmonized inflation coming in at 4.1% in June (May: 4.3%). Meanwhile, consumer price inflation ticked up to 2.1% in June from May’s 2.0%. Finally, harmonized consumer prices increased 0.48% in June over the previous month, contrasting May's 0.09% drop. June's figure marked the highest reading since February.

Outlook: Our panelists project inflation to ease from current levels through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, primarily due to lower crude prices—due to excess supply in the oil market—along with subdued economic growth and a relatively strong euro amid the U.S.’s erratic trade policy. Nevertheless, inflation in the services sector is forecast to remain more persistent, driven mainly by rising wages.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Belgian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Belgian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Belgian inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Belgian inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.