Economic growth remains robust in Q3

Economy outpaces most of the EU: According to preliminary data, Bulgaria's GDP increased 3.2% in working-day and seasonally adjusted year-on-year terms in Q3, following a 3.4% expansion in the prior quarter. Q3's reading was the lowest since Q2 2024 but was still among the fastest in the EU. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy increased 0.7% in Q3, following 0.9% growth in the previous quarter.

Faster demand supports GDP growth, while exports remain weak: Relative to the prior quarter's data, readings in Q3 softened for government consumption (+7.9% in calendar- and seasonally adjusted year-on-year terms vs +12.5% in Q2) and exports of goods and services (-5.6% vs -5.4% in Q2). In contrast, readings strengthened for private consumption (+8.8% vs +7.7% in Q2), fixed investment (+8.7% vs +8.6% in Q2) and imports of goods and services (+4.1% vs +0.4% in Q2).

Economic growth to mirror recent historical trend: Looking ahead, GDP growth should hover near its prior 10-year average in 2026, buoyed by stronger EU funding and improved investor sentiment amid expected euro adoption. Meanwhile, public and private consumption should lose some steam, while recovering industrial activity should support a rebound in exports. Rising political instability amid mass anti-government protests plus geopolitical insecurity in the Black Sea region pose downside risks.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Bulgarian private consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian private consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Bulgarian private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.