Economic growth remains robust in Q3

Economy outpaces most of the EU: According to preliminary data, Bulgaria's GDP increased 3.2% in working-day and seasonally adjusted year-on-year terms in Q3, following a 3.4% expansion in the prior quarter. Q3's reading was the lowest since Q2 2024 but was still among the fastest in the EU. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy increased 0.7% in Q3, following 0.9% growth in the previous quarter.

Faster demand supports GDP growth, while exports remain weak: Relative to the prior quarter's data, readings in Q3 softened for government consumption (+7.9% in calendar- and seasonally adjusted year-on-year terms vs +12.5% in Q2) and exports of goods and services (-5.6% vs -5.4% in Q2). In contrast, readings strengthened for private consumption (+8.8% vs +7.7% in Q2), fixed investment (+8.7% vs +8.6% in Q2) and imports of goods and services (+4.1% vs +0.4% in Q2).

Economic growth to mirror recent historical trend: Looking ahead, GDP growth should hover near its prior 10-year average in 2026, buoyed by stronger EU funding and improved investor sentiment amid expected euro adoption. Meanwhile, public and private consumption should lose some steam, while recovering industrial activity should support a rebound in exports. Rising political instability amid mass anti-government protests plus geopolitical insecurity in the Black Sea region pose downside risks.

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