GDP reading: GDP declined 3.5% in seasonally adjusted annualized rate terms (SAAR) in the second quarter, contrasting the 3.1% expansion...
Economic Growth in Canada
Over the last decade, Canada's economy benefited from brisk population growth, close ties to a robust U.S. economy, strong natural resource sectors and improved trade ties with Asian and European economies thanks to participation in new free trade deals. GDP growth frequently clocked over 2% per year, above the G7 average. Following a contraction in 2020, the post-pandemic recovery was supported by fiscal stimulus, rapid population growth and rebounding global demand. However, GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 was below trend, weighed on by a lack of productivity growth and despite the large increase in the size of the labor force.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Canada was 1.53%, compared to 2.87% in 2014 and 1.53% in 2023. It averaged 1.86% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Canada GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Canada from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Canada GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -5.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,656 | 2,022 | 2,190 | 2,174 | 2,243 |
| GDP (CAD bn) | 2,221 | 2,536 | 2,851 | 2,934 | 3,072 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.0 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 2.9 | 4.7 |
Economy slips into contraction in August
GDP reading: GDP was down 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis in August, following a 0.3% rise in the prior month.
Drivers: August’s decline was due to decreases in goods-producing and services-producing industries. With services, transport activity was negatively affected by a workers’ strike.
GDP outlook: Preliminary data suggests real GDP edged up 0.1% in September. Growth in manufacturing, financial and insurance services, and resource-related industries such as mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction was partly counterbalanced by declines in both wholesale and retail trade. As a result, the economy is expected to have expanded marginally in Q3 from Q2.
Panelist insight: On the data and outlook, TD Economics’ Marc Ercolao said: “Tariff-impacted industries remain under pressure from trade-related challenges. While consumption and domestic demand have shown some stability, third-quarter GDP growth is tracking a paltry 0.4% annualized. […] The BoC has acknowledged that trade-related impacts on inflation and economic growth are become more clear. We'd agree, though that doesn't lower the level of uncertainty in coming quarters as Canada and the U.S. continue to work on hammering out a trade deal. For now, the growth backdrop is expected to remain weak and gradually recover over the medium-term.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Canadian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 41 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Canadian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Canadian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Canadian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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