GDP reading: GDP stagnated on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis in January, following 0.1% growth in the prior month. January’s...
Economic Growth in Canada
Over the last decade, Canada's economy benefited from brisk population growth, close ties to a robust U.S. economy, strong natural resource sectors and improved trade ties with Asian and European economies thanks to participation in new free trade deals. GDP growth frequently clocked over 2% per year, above the G7 average. Following a contraction in 2020, the post-pandemic recovery was supported by fiscal stimulus, rapid population growth and rebounding global demand. However, GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 was below trend, weighed on by a lack of productivity growth and despite the large increase in the size of the labor force.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Canada was 1.53%, compared to 2.87% in 2014 and 1.53% in 2023. It averaged 1.86% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Canada GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Canada from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Canada GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -5.0 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,656 | 2,022 | 2,200 | 2,197 | 2,270 |
| GDP (CAD bn) | 2,221 | 2,536 | 2,864 | 2,965 | 3,109 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.0 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 3.5 | 4.8 |
Economy slips into contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025
GDP reading: Canada's GDP contracted 0.6% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualized (SAAR) terms in Q4, following 2.4% growth in the prior quarter.
Inventory drawdown masks underlying economic improvement: The decline was driven by a drawdown of business inventories. The underlying economy performed well: Compared with the previous period's data, readings in Q4 strengthened for private consumption (+1.7% vs -0.8% in Q3), government consumption (+3.1% vs -2.7% in Q3), fixed investment (+3.3% vs +2.1% in Q3) and exports of goods and services (+6.1% vs +3.8% in Q3).
GDP outlook: Preliminary data suggest that real GDP was broadly flat in January from December. Gains in mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, and finance and insurance were offset by declines in manufacturing and in real estate and rental and leasing.
Panelist insight: On the reading, TD Economics’ Maria Solovieva said: “Canada ended the year on a weaker footing as businesses drew down inventories, weighing on headline growth. For 2025 as a whole, the economy slowed to a 1.7%, primarily due to lower exports to the United States. That said, domestic demand grew at a better 2.3% pace, supported by stronger government spending. The rebound in consumption and the return of non-residential investment in the fourth quarter provide some reassurance that underlying demand is stabilizing.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Canadian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 43 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Canadian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Canadian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Canadian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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