Merchandise trade surplus increases in December

Latest reading: In December, the trade balance was USD +114.1 billion, following a USD +111.7 billion reading in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +1190.0 billion. Exports increased 6.6% in annual terms in December, following 5.9% growth in the prior month and above market expectations. Sales to the U.S. plunged, but this was more than compensated by higher sales to other markets such as the EU, ASEAN, Africa and Latin America. Imports were up 5.7% in year-on-year terms in December, following 1.9% growth in the prior month.

Panelist insight: On the data and outlook, Nomura analysts said: “For 2025, China recorded a trade surplus of USD1.2trn, a landmark and historical high. The further pick-up of exports was skewed to EM destinations, with exports to the US still contracting heavily, despite the removal of the 10% fentanyl-related tariffs. By product, growth of auto exports quickened further, even with worsening domestic sales. Strong export growth in the near term could reduce policymakers' urgency to launch key supportive measures, and we continue to expect Beijing to introduce major stimulus in Q2. We expect China's export growth to moderate to 4.0% in 2026, down from 5.5% in 2025, with exports likely to remain a key anchor for growth for the foreseeable future.”

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