Exports see strong start to the year

Latest reading: In February, the trade balance was USD +91.0 billion, following a USD +122.6 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +1233.4 billion. Merchandise exports rose 39.6% in annual terms in February, coming on the back of a 10.0% increase in the previous month. February's reading was the strongest since February 2021. So far this year, sales to the U.S. have fallen, but this has been more than outweighed by booming exports to other key markets. Merchandise imports rose 13.8% in year-on-year terms in February, following 25.6% growth in the prior month.

Panelist insight: Providing a caveat to the latest data, Nomura analysts said: “The exceptionally strong trade growth January and February was very likely distorted by the unique timing of the Chinese New Year holiday this year, even when combining the first two months to calculate the year-to-year growth. One strong piece of evidence is the 19.8% y-o-y growth in imports, which is inconsistent with China’s domestic demand trends. Looking ahead, while we expect both export and import growth to fall back to the pace we observed in late 2025 (around 5-6%), we still expect export growth to remain a key driver of growth, as China’s manufacturing sector, which is already one third of the world’s total, gains further ground.”

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