Merchandise trade surplus shrinks in March

Latest reading: In March, the trade balance was USD +51.1 billion, following a USD +91.0 billion reading in the previous month. This was the smallest surplus since February 2025. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +1180.9 billion. Merchandise exports increased 2.5% in annual terms in March, coming on the back of 39.6% growth in the prior month and below market expectations. However, the later-than-usual Lunar New Year could have been partly to blame. Merchandise imports were up 27.8% in annual terms in March, following a 13.8% rise in the prior month. March's reading was the strongest since November 2021.

Panelist insight: Digging into the data, Nomura analysts said: “Unusually strong import growth could be attributable to surging semiconductor prices, especially memory chips, as value growth of integrated circuits was far higher than volume growth. Import growth for various commodities was negative in March in value terms, including both crude oil and natural gas. Thus, the recent surge in global energy prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has yet to be reflected in China's import data, due potentially to the machinsm of future contracts and shipping times, but we believe this will gradually feed through into import data in coming months. The slowdown in export growth was largely expected, given the calendar mismatch caused by the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday and a very high base.”

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