Merchandise trade surplus widens in November

Latest reading: In November, the trade balance was USD +111.7 billion, following a USD +90.1 billion reading in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +1181.7 billion. Exports increased 5.9% in annual terms in November, following a 1.1% decline in the prior month and above market expectations. Slumping sales to the U.S. were more than offset by higher sales to other key markets. Ships, semiconductors and cars were key export growth categories. Imports were up 1.9% in annual terms in November, coming on the back of a 1.0% rise in the prior month.

Panelist insight: Delving deeper into imports, ING’s Lynn Song said: “While we've seen strong tech-related imports, with hi-tech imports up 8.7% YoY ytd, most other import categories have been very weak. There are generally clear explanations. For example, the continued malaise in the property market resulted in a sharp drop of demand in related imports, with lumber (-15.5%) and steel (-11.7%) all steeply in negative territory. One structural shift in China's import structure is likely tied to the auto sector. As the domestic auto sector has seen increased dominance, this translated into a sharp -38.3% YoY ytd decline in auto imports. This trend could continue, especially as Chinese automakers improve competitiveness across a broader range of products.”

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