GDP growth slows in Q4 from Q3

Q4 growth broadly in line with Consensus: According to a preliminary estimate, GDP grew 0.5% on a calendar- and seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the fourth quarter, following Q3’s 0.8% expansion. The reading was broadly in line with our Consensus. On an annual plus calendar- and seasonally adjusted basis, GDP rose by 2.4% in Q3 (Q2: +2.8% yoy s.a.). In 2025 as a whole, the economy grew 2.5%, as expected by our panelists, marking the fastest expansion in three years on the back of solid domestic demand (2024: +1.1% yoy).

Consumption and trade drive expansion: The statistical office reported that the expansion was driven by the external trade balance and higher final consumption, the latter likely supported by steady employment levels and easing inflation. A complete breakdown of the reading will be made available on 3 March.

Economic growth to stabilize this year: In Q1 2026, sequential GDP growth is seen broadly in line with Q4’s reading. Near-target inflation and a still-tight labor market will likely support private consumption. Moreover, recent monetary policy easing should support fixed investment. A pick up in EU demand—supported by higher fiscal spending in top export destination Germany—will likely buoy export growth.

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