Pharmaceutical industry slowdown hits GDP growth in Q4 2025

The weakest GDP growth in three quarters: Denmark's GDP expanded 0.2% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q4, following the previous quarter’s upwardly revised nearly four-year high of 2.3% growth. Q4’s print was the weakest in three quarters. In annual terms, GDP expanded 3.0% in Q4, following a 3.9% expansion in the prior quarter. Finally, in 2025 as a whole, economic growth clocked in at 2.9% (2024: +3.5%) and exceeded the prior decade average.

The pharma sector slows: Relative to the prior period's data, figures in Q4 worsened for private consumption (+0.1% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs +0.6% in Q3), fixed investment (-2.7% vs +1.2% in Q3), exports of goods and services (-0.5% vs +3.6% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (-0.4% vs -0.1% in Q3). The final quarter’s downbeat reading was driven by a slowdown in the nation’s all-important pharmaceutical industry, which is facing fierce competition from U.S. rivals. Meanwhile, fixed investment was constrained by sharp declines in housing capital expenditures and the value of intellectual property rights. In contrast, government consumption was supported by defense-related spending (+5.6% vs +1.2% in Q3).

Sequential GDP growth to tick up in Q1: Our panelists expect sequential economic growth to accelerate from Q4’s three-quarter low in Q1 of 2026, with gains increasingly driven by non-pharma companies.Looking at 2026 as a whole, GDP growth is set to hit a three-year low—but should still remain among the fastest in the Nordics region; low interest rates and unemployment plus greater fiscal stimulus will boost domestic demand. The main risk to the outlook is volatility in the pharmaceutical sector’s performance

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