Inflation decelerates in December

Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 1.9% in annual terms in December, following a 2.1% increase in the previous month. Relative to the prior month's figures, price pressures reduced for transportation in December (+1.2% on a year-on-year basis vs +1.4% in November). In contrast, price pressures were higher for clothing and footwear in December (-0.2% vs -0.6% in November). Finally, the variations in food and non-alcoholic beverages and housing and utilities were the same as in the prior month (+3.5% and +1.2%, respectively). Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation remained the main driver of overall inflation. Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 2.2% on a year-on-year basis in December, following a 2.3% increase in the prior month. Finally, consumer prices declined 0.41% in December in month-on-month terms, following a 0.33% fall in the prior month.

Outlook: Our panelists expect inflation to ease slightly in 2026 from 2025, before picking up modestly in 2027, while remaining slightly below current levels.

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