Economic growth ebbs in the third quarter of 2025

GDP expands at a softer pace: Ecuador's GDP grew 2.4% on a seasonally adjusted year-on-year basis in Q3 (Q2: +4.3% yoy s.a.), marking the weakest expansion in 2025 to date. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy contracted 2.2% in Q3, following a 0.1% contraction in the prior quarter.

Plunging exports weigh on GDP growth: Compared with the prior period's data, figures in Q3 softened for fixed investment (+6.5% in annual terms vs +7.5% in Q2) and exports of goods and services (-4.2% vs +7.9% in Q2). In contrast, readings strengthened for private consumption (+10.2% vs +8.7% in Q2), government consumption (+0.9% vs +0.4% in Q2) and imports of goods and services (+16.6% vs +16.0% in Q2). Exports were hit hard by lower oil shipments after two major pipelines were forced offline in July by extreme weather. Household spending, by contrast, powered the expansion, climbing at its fastest pace since Q2 2023 on the back of 10-year-high remittance inflows.

GDP to cool in 2026 compared to 2025: Our panelists expect economic growth to have picked up in annual terms during Q4, driven by still-robust remittances, improved financing conditions and the reopening of pipelines. Looking at 2026, GDP growth is expected to lose momentum compared with 2025, mainly due to an unfavorable base effect following the post-drought recovery in 2025. The main drag on growth will come from exports, as the gradual shutdown of the ITT oil field continues in 2026; crude oil accounts for about a third of Ecuador’s merchandise shipments. Moreover, high crime rates will likely continue to weigh on the economy.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, EIU analysts stated: “Although mining and other non-oil shipments will support export growth towards the end of the forecast period, the winding down of production at the ITT oilfield will partly offset this. Trade and immigration restriction policies under the Trump administration in the US will also curb growth in remittances inflows and exports.”

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