Economy enters 2025 on weak footing: A second release confirmed that GDP was flat compared to a year ago in...
Private Consumption in Estonia
In the year 2024, the private consumption in Estonia was -0.41%, compared to 4.06% in 2014 and -1.47% in 2023. It averaged 2.83% over the last decade. For more private consumption information, visit our dedicated page.
Estonia Private consumption Chart
Note: This chart displays Private Consumption (annual variation in %) for Estonia from 2024 to 2017.
Source: Macrobond.
Estonia Private consumption Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 4.2 | -1.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 | -1.5 |
Economy contracts in Q1
Sustained growth remains a distant dream: GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2025 in annual terms following Q4 2024’s 1.2% expansion. The decline was the strongest since Q3 2024 and was notably below the flash estimate of a 1.2% rise. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity shrank 0.3% in Q1, compared to the previous period's 0.2% growth and marking the worst reading since Q4 2023.
Household consumption and net exports cap momentum: Domestically, private spending drove the annual contraction, declining 0.6% in Q1 compared to a 1.3% expansion in Q4. That said, elsewhere in the domestic economy, momentum improved. Government spending rebounded, growing 1.7% in Q1 (Q4 2024: -1.1% yoy); moreover, fixed investment fell at a softer pace of 0.1% in Q1 following the 10.3% decrease in the previous quarter, boosted by public outlays in the defense sector as part of the EU’s rearmament drive. On the external side, exports of goods and services growth improved to 5.4% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +2.9% yoy). However, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 5.8% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +4.8% yoy). As a result, the contribution of net trade to GDP growth remained negative.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Estonian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Estonian private consumption.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Estonian private consumption projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Estonian private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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