Current account swings to deficit in March

Latest reading: The current account recorded a EUR 3.3 billion deficit in March, deteriorating from the EUR 0.5 billion surplus clocked in February (March 2024: EUR 0.8 billion deficit). Meanwhile, the 12-month trailing current account balance swung to a EUR 0.7 billion deficit in March (February: EUR 1.8 billion surplus). The merchandise trade balance was flat in March, deteriorating from the previous month’s EUR 0.6 billion surplus. Merchandise exports plummeted 14.1% on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis in March (February: +5.8% mom s.a.), marking the sharpest decline in a year. Meanwhile, merchandise imports fell 0.3% in monthly terms (February: +2.5% mom s.a.).

Panelist insight: SEB’s Mihkel Nestor commented: “[A source of] uncertainty and economic risks is the recent turmoil in US trade policy, given that last year 10 per cent of goods exports and 15 per cent of service exports went to the US. We still expect international demand to improve somewhat during the second half of 2025, resulting in a 2.5 per cent increase in exports this year.”

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