Merchandise trade surplus increases in January

Latest reading: In January, the trade balance was EUR +21.2 billion, following a EUR +17.4 billion reading in the prior month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to EUR +209.3 billion. This was the largest surplus since August 2024. Merchandise exports declined 2.3% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in January, following 3.9% growth in the prior month. January's reading was the weakest since May 2024. Merchandise imports were down 5.9% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in January, coming on the back of a 1.3% increase in the previous month. January's reading was the weakest since April 2020.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, ING’s Carsten Brzeski stated: “Looking ahead, German exports still face rough headwinds. US tariffs are still weighing on exports and will probably only show their full impact this year, notwithstanding the new uncertainty since the Supreme Court’s ruling. At the same time, German exporters are currently facing a triple China shock: weaker demand for German products in China, increased competition from Chinese producers in third markets and Germany’s home market, the EU, and finally the dependence on Chinese rare earths. The war in the Middle East, surging energy prices and potentially new supply chain frictions are only the latest in a long series of headwinds.”

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