Economic growth unchanged in Q2

GDP growth stable: GDP growth was unchanged year on year in the second quarter, matching Q1’s upwardly revised 6.3% figure and exceeding market expectations. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth lost steam, cooling to 1.4% in Q2, compared to the previous quarter's 1.6% expansion.

Households and investors underpin momentum: Private consumption growth improved to 12.2% year on year in Q2, up from a 5.0% expansion in Q1, as inflation averaged its lowest level in the second quarter since Q1 2022. Additionally, total investment growth accelerated to 17.1% in Q2, following the 3.2% increase in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, government consumption dropped at its sharpest pace since Q3 2023, contracting 0.2% (Q1: +8.2% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services growth moderated to 9.1% in Q2 (Q1: +13.9% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 23.0% in Q2 (Q1: +7.3% yoy).

GDP growth to remain healthy: Our panelists expect GDP growth to cool in H2 from its stellar Q2 performance. Still, momentum should remain upbeat by historical standards, supported by disinflation and ongoing monetary policy easing. Adverse weather hurting the cocoa harvest poses a downside risk.

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