Economic growth picks up in the third quarter of 2025

GDP reading: Hong Kong's GDP increased 3.8% on a year-on-year basis in Q3, following a 3.1% expansion in the previous quarter and beating market expectations. Strong stock market activity boosted the financial sector, growth in tourism underpinned services exports, and resilient transshipments from mainland China aided exports. In addition, private consumption rose for the second straight quarter following a prolonged downturn, supported by a weaker Hong Kong dollar so far this year, lower interest rates, a stabilization in property prices and equity market gains. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, economic output increased 0.7% in Q3, following a 0.4% expansion in the prior quarter.

Broad-based expansion: Compared to the previous quarter's data, figures in Q3 improved for private consumption (+2.1% in annual terms vs +1.9% in Q2), exports of goods (+12.2% vs +11.5% in Q2) and fixed investment (+4.3% vs +1.9% in Q2). In contrast, readings worsened for government consumption (+1.6% vs +2.5% in Q2) and exports of services (+6.1% vs +8.6% in Q2).

Panelist insight: United Overseas Bank’s Ho Woei Chen said: “After three quarters of strong growth averaging 3.3%, we expect the momentum to slow slightly in 4Q25. In 2026, we are maintaining our GDP growth forecast at 2.0%. The stabilization in China’s economy remains crucial for Hong Kong, given the deep financial and trade linkages with the mainland. This, in turn, hinges on the trajectory of US-China trade relations and the mainland’s domestic policies to drive consumption.”

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