Merchandise trade deficit shrinks in February

Latest reading: In February, the trade balance was USD -27.1 billion, following a USD -34.7 billion reading in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD -331.6 billion. Merchandise exports declined 0.8% in year-on-year terms in February, following a 0.6% rise in the prior month. Merchandise imports rose 24.1% in year-on-year terms in February, following a 19.9% increase in the prior month and marking the strongest reading since August 2022.

Outlook: In recent trade news, media reported in mid-March that India will hold off signing a trade deal with the U.S. for several months because of uncertainty about American import levies in light of February’s Supreme Court decision to strike down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. For now, U.S. tariffs on India sit at 10%—the same as in other countries subject to a universal tariff under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act—but these could rise as Trump explores alternative legal avenues to rebuild his tariff wall.

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Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Indian merchandise imports projections.

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