GDP reading: GDP fell 0.1% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in October, unchanged from the prior month’s reading and contrasting...
Economic Growth in Japan
Japan's GDP growth over the last decade was well below the G7 average. The economy struggled with an aging, declining population and deflationary pressures, despite fiscal and monetary stimulus. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant downturn. Long-term growth prospects remain subdued, highlighting the need for structural reforms to address demographic and productivity challenges.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Japan was 0.17%, compared to 0.30% in 2014 and 1.39% in 2023. It averaged 0.50% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Japan GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Japan from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Japan GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | -0.2 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 5,189 | 5,221 | 4,448 | 4,383 | 4,188 |
| GDP (JPY bn) | 554,074 | 573,569 | 584,901 | 616,033 | 634,226 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 3.0 |
Economy slips into contraction in the third quarter of 2025
GDP reading: Japan's GDP contracted 2.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualized (SAAR) basis in Q3, following a 2.1% expansion in the previous quarter. The decline, which was slightly less sharp than economists had expected, marks the end of a relatively strong five-quarter streak of growth.
Drivers: Compared with the prior quarter's data, figures in Q3 softened for private consumption (+0.8% in SAAR terms vs +1.0% in Q2), fixed investment (-6.1% vs +3.9% in Q2), exports of goods and services (-4.9% vs +8.0% in Q2), imports of goods and services (-1.8% vs +5.7% in Q2) and government consumption (+0.6% vs +1.4% in Q2). In terms of drivers, the highest inflation rates in decades continued to stifle private consumption, U.S. tariffs dampened exports, and new energy regulations affecting the construction industry hurt fixed investment. On a year-on-year basis, economic output expanded 0.6% in Q3, following a 2.0% expansion in the prior quarter.
Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs’ Yuriko Tanaka said: “Going forward, we expect housing investment to return to positive territory, but with the global economy expected to slow, led by the US, we look for exports to stagnate from 2025 Q4 through early 2026. It is also conceivable that year-end bonuses will be restrained by worsening corporate profits, and we think growth in private consumption will remain moderate. We forecast that 2025Q4 GDP will be lifted to +1.3% qoq annualized by a rebound in housing investment and inventories, and then return to a growth pace of around +0.7-0.8%.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Japanese GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 55 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Japanese GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Japanese GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Japanese GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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