Inflation eases slightly in December

Latest reading: Consumer prices were up 12.3% on a year-on-year basis in December, following a 12.4% increase in the prior month. December’s reading was the lowest since August. Overall in 2025, average inflation rose to 11.4% (2024: 8.7%). Relative to the previous month's data, in December there were reduced price pressures for housing and utilities (+9.3% in annual terms vs +9.9% in November), health (+17.0% vs +17.5% in November) and restaurants and hotels (+13.8% vs +15.8% in November). In contrast, there were more notable price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+13.5% vs +13.4% in November) and transportation (+12.7% vs +12.6% in November). Lastly, consumer prices were up 0.87% in December in month-on-month terms, following a 0.76% increase in the previous month.

Outlook: Our Consensus is for inflation to rise on average in Q1 2026 versus Q4 2025, driven by the VAT increase at the start of the year, before declining from Q2 through Q4 2026 on the back of lower energy prices. Overall, inflation is expected to ease slightly in 2026 compared to 2025 but remain well above the National Bank’s 5.0% medium-term target and be the highest in the CIS Plus region.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, Basak Edizgil and Clemens Grafe from Goldman Sachs said: “Although annual inflation is likely to stay elevated due to the 4pp VAT increase at the start of the year, we expect monthly inflation momentum to ease considerably over the course of the year, driven by FX stability and slower energy price increases. We think that the NBK and the government are signalling greater coordination in their efforts to bring down inflation and are now putting additional emphasis on FX stability. […] Set against FX stability and subdued energy inflation, the main upside risks to our inflation outlook stem from food and core services prices, which continue to exhibit considerable volatility.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Kazakhstani inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 23 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Kazakhstani inflation.

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