Merchandise trade surplus narrows in October

Latest reading: In October, the trade balance was USD +4.5 billion, following a USD +4.8 billion reading in the prior month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +36.7 billion. Exports were up 18.0% in annual terms in October, following 13.8% growth in the prior month. Imports increased 13.4% in annual terms in October, coming on the back of a 8.5% increase in the previous month.

Panelist insight: United Overseas Bank’s Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting said: “Barring potential US sector-specific tariffs, Malaysia’s trade outlook remains constructive, supported by the reciprocal tariff agreement and the one-year US–China trade truce. Structural shifts from global tariff realignment, the ongoing AI cycle and deeper regional integration are anticipated to sustain Malaysia’s trade momentum into 2026, albeit at a moderate pace.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Malaysian trade projections for the next ten years from a panel of 5 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable trade forecast available for Malaysian trade.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Malaysian trade projections.

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