Merchandise trade returns to a surplus in October

Latest reading: In October, the trade balance was USD +0.6 billion, following a USD -2.4 billion figure in the prior month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD -1.2 billion. Exports increased 14.2% in year-on-year terms in October, coming on the back of a 13.8% increase in the prior month. This was due to double-digit growth in manufactured goods exports—excluding car sales, which fell sharply in October. October's reading was the strongest since January 2023. Imports increased 12.8% in annual terms in October, coming on the back of a 15.2% increase in the prior month.

Panelist insight: On the data and outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “The better-than-expected trade balance in October followed a series of strong external data. Uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s trade relationship with the US will continue to challenge trade flows until a definitive USMCA renegotiation begins before July 1, 2026. Looking ahead, oil exports will be influenced by domestic policies related to national sovereignty and oil price dynamics, while manufacturing exports are expected to remain at high levels.”

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