GDP reading: GDP growth ticked up to 3.1% year on year in the second quarter from 3.0% in the first...
Economic Growth in Mexico
Mexico's GDP growth over the last decade was moderate by emerging market standards, constrained by structural challenges and policy uncertainties. The economy benefited from its proximity to the United States but faced headwinds from a lack of structural reforms and an ambivalent stance towards the private sector under President Obrador. Post-pandemic the economy has benefitted from a recovery in tourism, strong remittances and exports, and state investment in large infrastructure projects such as the Maya Train and a new airport.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Mexico was 1.45%, compared to 2.50% in 2014 and 3.35% in 2023. It averaged 1.51% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Mexico GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Mexico from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Mexico GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -8.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,121 | 1,316 | 1,467 | 1,800 | 1,855 |
| GDP (MXN bn) | 24,087 | 26,690 | 29,526 | 31,936 | 33,981 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.1 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 6.4 |
GDP growth accelerates in Q2
GDP reading: According to a preliminary estimate, GDP growth accelerated to 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the second quarter from 0.2% in the first quarter. The Q2 growth was almost twice as fast as markets had expected, highlighting the economy’s resilience despite the imposition of U.S. tariffs on some Mexican exports.
Manufacturing and services underpin growth: The services sector grew 0.7% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms in the second quarter, contrasting the first quarter's 0.1% decrease. In addition, the industrial sector grew 0.8% in Q2 (Q1: +0.1% s.a. qoq). In contrast, the primary sector swung to contraction, falling 1.3% in Q2, contrasting the 7.8% expansion logged in the prior quarter.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “Looking ahead, we anticipate some support from international sources of Mexico’s growth, primarily in manufacturing exports still with some frontloading effects, and growth in the tourism sector. The outlook for domestically related sectors is mixed, however, with a moderation in local services and a contraction in investment.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 53 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Mexican GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Mexican GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Mexican GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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