Mexico GDP per Capita: Overview and Outlook
Current GDP per Capita
Mexico's current GDP per capita is USD 14,000, a figure that reflects its status as a significant upper-middle-income economy.
Historical Changes in Mexico's GDP per CapitaMexico's economic performance in the 21st century has been one of slow and often disappointing real GDP growth. While the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) boosted trade and integrated Mexico into US manufacturing supply chains, it failed to deliver the rapid convergence in living standards that was hoped for. The economy remained highly dependent on the US business cycle, suffering when the US slowed down, such as after 2001 and during the 2008 crisis. Over the last decade, the combination of mild real GDP growth and a weaker peso meant that GDP per capita rose only modestly.
GDP per Capita Predictions for the Coming YearsMexico's GDP per capita is set to decline in 2025 from 2024 due to a weaker peso and the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs, before resuming a moderate upward trajectory for the rest of the decade. Real GDP growth will remain weak by global standards in the coming years due to issues such as high crime and corruption, a weak business environment and a mediocre education system.
Want to get concrete forecasts for Mexico's GDP per capita for the coming years? FocusEconomics collects GDP per capita projections out to 2035 from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form here.
Key Factors to Watch
Mexico's long-term economic future hinges significantly on trade relations with the U.S. If the U.S. continues to hike tariffs on Mexico, this would dampen Mexican GDP per capita; on the contrary, renewed open trade between the two nations would boost Mexican growth and allow the country to fully seize the nearshoring opportunity.
Another key factor to watch is the rule of law. The judicial system was recently overhauled, with judges now elected by popular vote. This risks undermining judicial independence and increasing corruption, which could in turn cause investors to lose faith in the country and sell pesos—weakening the currency and GDP per capita in turn.
Mexico GDP Per Capita Chart
Note: This chart displays GDP per capita (USD) for Mexico from 2022 to 2021.
Source: Macrobond.
Mexico GDP Per Capita Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per capita (USD) | 10,257 | 8,741 | 10,199 | 11,292 | 13,723 |
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican GDP Per Capita projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP Per Capita forecast available for Mexican GDP Per Capita.
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