GDP reading: GDP stagnated on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis in January, following 0.1% growth in the prior month. January’s...
Economic Growth in Mexico
Mexico's GDP growth over the last decade was moderate by emerging market standards, constrained by structural challenges and policy uncertainties. The economy benefited from its proximity to the United States but faced headwinds from a lack of structural reforms and an ambivalent stance towards the private sector under President Obrador. Post-pandemic the economy has benefitted from a recovery in tourism, strong remittances and exports, and state investment in large infrastructure projects such as the Maya Train and a new airport.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Mexico was 1.45%, compared to 2.50% in 2014 and 3.35% in 2023. It averaged 1.51% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Mexico GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Mexico from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Mexico GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -8.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,121 | 1,316 | 1,467 | 1,796 | 1,829 |
| GDP (MXN bn) | 24,087 | 26,690 | 29,526 | 31,866 | 33,507 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.1 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 5.1 |
Economy perks up in Q4
GDP reading: Mexico's GDP expanded 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4 2025, following a 0.3% contraction in Q3. In annual terms, GDP rose 1.6% in Q4, after declining 0.1% in Q3. Both the quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year readings were above market expectations.
Drivers: Relative to the previous quarter's data, readings in Q4 improved for the services sector (+0.9% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs +0.2% in Q3) and the industrial sector (+0.9% vs -1.5% in Q3). In contrast, the primary sector deteriorated in Q4 (-2.7% vs +3.7% in Q3).
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “Looking ahead, these results suggest a more favorable outlook for economic momentum, where we expect Mexico to continue on a gradual path toward its potential growth rate. For 2026 and 2027, we forecast GDP growth of approximately 1.5% and 2.0%, respectively. These figures also imply a narrowing negative output gap—an important consideration for Banxico’s monetary policy calibration, as the output gap remains one of the key channels supporting disinflation this year.” Goldman Sachs’ Alberto Ramos said: “Going forward, activity is expected to face headwinds from soft business confidence and peaking credit cycle. On the positive side, generous minimum wage increases, and a resilient labor market should offer some support to domestic demand. Investment is expected to continue to be impacted by both domestic and external uncertainty, in particular related to trade-policy direction in the US and the USMCA review.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 56 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Mexican GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Mexican GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Mexican GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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