Economic growth stabilizes in the fourth quarter of 2025

GDP growth remains above the euro area average: The Netherlands' GDP grew 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4, the same as the upwardly revised reading for the prior quarter and above the euro area’s 0.3% growth. In annual terms, GDP grew 1.8% in Q4, stable from the previous quarter's reading and bringing overall GDP growth in 2025 to a three-year high of 1.9% (2024: +1.1%)

Exports and public consumption drive growth: Relative to the previous quarter's data, figures in Q4 improved for government consumption (+1.1% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs +0.9% in Q3), fixed investment (-0.1% vs -1.6% in Q3), exports of goods and services (+1.3% vs +1.2% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (+0.6% vs +0.5% in Q3). Finally, the variation in private consumption was the same as in the prior quarter (+0.3% in both Q4 and Q3). Diving further into the details of the GDP release, the acceleration in public spending reflected the allocation of more funds to healthcare plus , wages and salaries. Meanwhile, faster export growth was fully driven by goods exports, particularly petroleum products, machinery and transport equipment. Looking at production, the agriculture, forestry and fishing, and manufacturing sectors, together with public services—education and healthcare—were the main drivers of growth.

GDP growth to moderate this year: Our panelists expect sequential GDP growth to inch down through Q2 2026 from the final quarter of 2025, before broadly stabilizing through 2027. Accordingly, overall GDP growth is seen moderating this year from 2025’s three-year high as growth in exports and public consumption weakens. Meanwhile, fixed investment, which was subdued in 2025 due to trade uncertainty, will likely only increase slightly in 2026; higher public spending on defense should partly outweigh subdued private investment amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

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